Competing Ties Force Germany to Mediate in Ukraine
November 19, 2014 | 1015 GMT
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Summary
On
Nov. 18, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to
Kiev and Moscow in an effort to mediate a de-escalation of hostilities
in eastern Ukraine. He met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir
Putin. Steinmeier's visits come days after German officials confirmed
that one of the country's diplomats in Moscow was expelled in
retaliation for Germany's expulsion of a Russian diplomat from the
consulate in Bonn, reportedly on the grounds that the official was
involved in espionage.
Despite
the expulsions, Germany's goal is to maintain its ties with Russia,
avoid more significant EU sanctions on the Russian economy and ensure
that a cease-fire is maintained in eastern Ukraine. While German leaders
will continue taking calculated steps to censure the Kremlin, as long
as Russian-backed separatists do not significantly expand the
territories under their control, Germany will avoid taking concrete
measures that would further harm its commercial and political
relationship with Russia.
Analysis
The tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions in Russia and Germany came as the Polish government
expelled a Russian diplomat, allegedly a member of Russian military
intelligence, who was in contact with a Polish colonel now in custody on
espionage charges. The Kremlin responded by expelling several Polish
officials from Moscow. Interestingly, while diplomatic expulsions are
far from rare in the region, Germany typically does not rebuke the
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly.
Expelling foreign diplomats is a low-cost tool for governments to publicly express their concerns about other countries' actions. Host governments are aware that diplomatic missions organize foreign intelligence activities and often track specific individuals with diplomatic passports involved in covert foreign operations. The decision to expel diplomats takes place either when the host government wishes to send a public message to its foreign partner or when the foreign agent's activities become too flagrant for the host government to ignore. Diplomatic expulsions generally result in the foreign government retaliating with its own expulsions, which often mirror the original expulsions in numbers and rank.
Nevertheless, expulsions do not usually cause significant harm to bilateral relations. Germany and Poland's decision to reveal some of these activities and expel officials with diplomatic passports is intended as a low-risk public gesture, both to their domestic audiences and to the Kremlin, to demonstrate their opposition to Russia's overt and covert activities abroad.
Expelling foreign diplomats is a low-cost tool for governments to publicly express their concerns about other countries' actions. Host governments are aware that diplomatic missions organize foreign intelligence activities and often track specific individuals with diplomatic passports involved in covert foreign operations. The decision to expel diplomats takes place either when the host government wishes to send a public message to its foreign partner or when the foreign agent's activities become too flagrant for the host government to ignore. Diplomatic expulsions generally result in the foreign government retaliating with its own expulsions, which often mirror the original expulsions in numbers and rank.
Nevertheless, expulsions do not usually cause significant harm to bilateral relations. Germany and Poland's decision to reveal some of these activities and expel officials with diplomatic passports is intended as a low-risk public gesture, both to their domestic audiences and to the Kremlin, to demonstrate their opposition to Russia's overt and covert activities abroad.
Germany's Priorities
Berlin values its highly pragmatic relationship with Moscow. Because of Germany's geographic position on the North European Plain,
Berlin has historically formulated its foreign policy with both Russia
and France in mind. Germany's relationship with these two powers shaped
both major conflicts of the 20th century. Today, Germany's imperative
includes maintaining its close relationship with its neighbors to the
west and keeping European markets open to trade while also safeguarding
its close commercial and political ties with Russia to the east.
As the leading power in the European Union, Germany must also balance the diverse security and economic concerns of the bloc's members. The Baltic states and Poland want a more assertive pan-European stance regarding Russia, while the European states farther from Russia geographically -- and often with close business ties to the country -- prefer a less confrontational stance and oppose further economic sanctions.
A new round of significant economic sanctions on Russia would harm German businesses and the European Union's economy as a whole. Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Russia publicly for facilitating some of the ongoing fighting in Ukraine, recently she has advocated adding separatist leaders to the EU sanctions list and opposed an extension of sanctions that affect Russia's economy.
In order to avoid any potential new economic sanctions on Russia, Germany is working to salvage the Minsk agreements that led to the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine in early September. Should the cease-fire officially end and Russian-backed forces choose to expand their territorial control to important towns such as Mariupol, Eastern Europe and some segments of the German population would increase their calls for Berlin to support new sanctions.
The success of the cease-fire hinges on the Kremlin's decision-making, as Russia continues to provide separatists with weapons, equipment and personnel. During the G-20 summit in Australia, Putin and Merkel had a lengthy bilateral meeting that focused mostly on the situation in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, during his visit to Kiev and Moscow on Nov. 18, Steinmeier worked to bring all sides back to the negotiating table.
As the leading power in the European Union, Germany must also balance the diverse security and economic concerns of the bloc's members. The Baltic states and Poland want a more assertive pan-European stance regarding Russia, while the European states farther from Russia geographically -- and often with close business ties to the country -- prefer a less confrontational stance and oppose further economic sanctions.
A new round of significant economic sanctions on Russia would harm German businesses and the European Union's economy as a whole. Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Russia publicly for facilitating some of the ongoing fighting in Ukraine, recently she has advocated adding separatist leaders to the EU sanctions list and opposed an extension of sanctions that affect Russia's economy.
In order to avoid any potential new economic sanctions on Russia, Germany is working to salvage the Minsk agreements that led to the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine in early September. Should the cease-fire officially end and Russian-backed forces choose to expand their territorial control to important towns such as Mariupol, Eastern Europe and some segments of the German population would increase their calls for Berlin to support new sanctions.
The success of the cease-fire hinges on the Kremlin's decision-making, as Russia continues to provide separatists with weapons, equipment and personnel. During the G-20 summit in Australia, Putin and Merkel had a lengthy bilateral meeting that focused mostly on the situation in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, during his visit to Kiev and Moscow on Nov. 18, Steinmeier worked to bring all sides back to the negotiating table.
Russia's Perspective
Just
as German leaders strive to preserve ties with Russia, the Kremlin is
working to maintain a good relationship not only with German leaders,
but also with the German public. On Nov. 16, German television channel
ARD aired a taped interview with Putin in which -- while occasionally
adding phrases in German -- the Russian president outlined his view of
the Ukraine crisis. While comparing Crimea's referendum to Kosovo's
independence and voicing concerns over an alleged potential for ethnic
cleansing in Ukraine, Putin also presented several stipulations that the
Kremlin wants to form the basis for a negotiation over the future of
Ukraine, including federalization and the withdrawal of Ukrainian
military forces from certain towns and villages. Putin alluded to the
idea that while Russia is asked frequently to influence the separatists
in Ukraine, Berlin should influence the government in Kiev in order for
the sides to come to an understanding. Russia could be seeking Germany's
backing in persuading Kiev to negotiate over issues such as
federalization and withdrawal from some parts of Luhansk and Donetsk
provinces -- demands that the Ukrainian government has opposed thus far.
The German government is influential not only in the European Union, but also in Kiev. Berlin will play a central role in determining the level of much-needed financial aid and political support Ukraine will receive from the European Union. Moreover, key members of the pro-Western alliance in Kiev have longstanding ties to Germany and German institutions. Putin's suggestion that Kiev must be influenced to cooperate in future negotiations is an indirect reference to this relationship. The Kremlin is aware of Germany's ties to Ukraine and of Berlin's need to maintain good relations with Moscow. These relationships motivate Germany to continue acting as a mediator in efforts to alleviate tensions in eastern Ukraine.
The German government is influential not only in the European Union, but also in Kiev. Berlin will play a central role in determining the level of much-needed financial aid and political support Ukraine will receive from the European Union. Moreover, key members of the pro-Western alliance in Kiev have longstanding ties to Germany and German institutions. Putin's suggestion that Kiev must be influenced to cooperate in future negotiations is an indirect reference to this relationship. The Kremlin is aware of Germany's ties to Ukraine and of Berlin's need to maintain good relations with Moscow. These relationships motivate Germany to continue acting as a mediator in efforts to alleviate tensions in eastern Ukraine.