domingo, 25 de marzo de 2012

¿ A “COUP D´ÉTAT” STRIKES MALI?





¿ A “COUP D´ÉTAT” STRIKES MALI?

Last Thursday 22nd, the President of Mali, Amadou Toumani Touré, was attacked while in his presidential palace by a group of middle and low rank officers of the National army. After the first exchange of fire, the State Broadcasting station remained silent -even when several Ministers were arrested- and the rebels declared that they had seized power, the President was able to flee from the official premises and to successfully move to a military camp, where the most important group of loyal “élite” troops members were established. 

In the capital, Bamako, the situation is awkward. Not only the loyal troops are not responding against the rebels units but also “free” soldiers and mob, most important “militar”, activities are stealing vehicles, looting gas stations, popular markets and different kind of stores around. Even if there are frequently bouts of gunfire, it is no clear who exactly is involved in the struggle and against what ”ennemy”. Most surprinsingly of all, nobody talks about large amount of human casualties. The coup chiefs seem to be quite unable to control the soldiers under their command, considering the pillaging and wild shooting in the streets.

The coup was completely unexpected as the President had previously scheduled elections for the end of April and had announced that he would respect the Constitution and leave the power to the winner of the elections regardless of the results. The reasons of this attempt of overthrowing Toumani Touré are, then, far from being clear, especially in a country like Mali, which has enjoyed a relative political stability for the last 21 years. Besides, Malian economy is doing relatively well (the country is Africa's third largest gold miner and a major local cotton grower) and it is considered, in the continent and even in the world, to be a stable democratic state in a restless region, even if the agriculture of the region of the Sahel is still suffering from the recurrent, and well known, drought crisis.

In the international arena, Mali, under the presidency of Toumani Touré, was an ally of regional and Western governments in stopping the attacks and kidnappings committed by Islamic militants, which were apparently associated with Al Qaeda in their efforts to spread down to the south, through the Sahara.   

Before the ”coup” the U.S. had been providing training to Mali's army and one of the coup leaders, Captain Amadou Sanogo, president of the newly formed National Committee for the Return of Democracy and the Restoration of the State (CNRDR), said he himself received training from U.S.’ marines and intelligence. Furthermore, Sanogo has stated that he has no political relation with any political group or party and that his only objective is to reinforce the army and to return to a democratic regime. But even so, if the overnight coup, which was apparently carried out only by mid-level and junior officers, pretends been “non political“, it will put an end, at least for the moment, to the occidental financial support. The World Bank, the African Development Bank and European Commission have suspended aid funding to Mali and the UN, l´ Union Africaine, the U.S., France and Germany have all condemned the coup.

It seems clear that the political and military pressure from the Tuaregs and the Islamic groups that were pushing from the north is a real problem that triggered, at least, part of the process. The coup leaders of the CNRDR have promised to hand power back to a democratically-elected president "...as soon as the country is reunified", which seems to mean that somewhere in the army there is a real concern about the national unity and the ability of the government and the army to fight and stop the invasion from the north. The leaders of Tuareg-led rebels, now thrusting the south, have said they want to set up an independent area across the northern region.

This strange rebel movement in Bamako, that attacked the constitutional President, argues that Toumani Touré government had not adequately supported the Malian army's fight against the advancing Tuareg-led rebellion in the north, which took place in recent months. The rebellion arriving from the North seems clearly promoted by the former pro-Gaddafi “mercenaires“ and even by Libyan fighters that flew from Lybia after Gaddafi´s dramatic final. The “coup” perpetrated against Toumani Touré shows that the overthrowing of Muammar Gaddafi and the vanishing of his forty-year-old regime during 2011, have begun to have strong consequences on the sub-saharian region. An explosive mix of refugees, money, weapons and soldiers coming from Lybia joint de Islamic movements of the sub-saharian region and apparently they are trying to head south in order to control the central parts of the country and even the capital, Bamako.

The malian officers declared that the clear frustration of 7.000 national army men was the reason why the President was overthrown: the “incompetent regime” should be blamed for its lack of weapons and ammunition to fight against the rebels who are fighting the malian Army from the North with increasing success.

But at Bamako, on Saturday 24th, the situation apparently began to change. Even if nobody knows where the Président Touré is, the putschists soldiers are losing control of the internal situation. Internationally isolated, internally condemned by all political parties during last night, they are obviously waiting (and fearing) the counter of the troops loyal to President Toumani Toure. It is important to underline that the “bérets rouges”, the soldiers that are supposed to protect the President, are the “élite” of Malian army and they are, to a great extent, mainly paratroopers and commandos.

A very tense atmosphere prevailed at Bamako on Saturday. The rebels were using the official TV to send messages in order to reassure the capital’s population. However, a brief interruption of the signal finally increased the fear in the city. In the meantime, an islamiste touareg group declared to AFP, from the north, that he was ready to attack Kidal, one important city of northeast Mali.

With the first tour of elections only five weeks away, the future of Mali is quite unclear. Even worse, it seems that everything could happen within the next few hours.

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