Is China a threat to ASEAN’s unity?
3 June 2015
by Phoak Kung, CISS.
The
rise of China and its growing influence in the Asia Pacific puts ASEAN
unity and centrality to its biggest test in years. Although ASEAN
leaders are trying to downplay the seriousness of this concern, their
differences are publicly on display.
The
claimants to the maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea,
most notably Vietnam and the Philippines, want their ASEAN colleagues to
present a united front on the issues. They want ASEAN to be more
forceful in condemning China for using its tremendous economic and
military power to put pressure on its weaker and smaller negotiating
partners. But the consensus among most ASEAN members is to resolve the
disputes through peaceful dialogue rather than direct confrontation.
China’s
flagship One Belt, One Road strategy is considered by some claimants as
an attempt to divide ASEAN. They ask other members, especially the
mainland Southeast Asian countries that stand to benefit the most from
these initiatives, to be cautious, and not to be lured by China’s big
money. It is not surprising that some in these countries are skeptical
of the establishment of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
But
for some other ASEAN members, such concerns are rather misplaced and
overblown. They suggest that any deals with China do not come at the
expense of their countries being forced to adopt policy to please
Beijing. It is true that some members are more dependent on China than
others, but it is unwise to assume that their hands are tied, and that
they cannot pursue their own agenda or have strong diplomatic relations
with other major powers.
What
is happening is that some are just taking a realistic approach to
engage China for the benefit of their country. They acknowledge that
retreating to nationalism and encouraging anti-China crusades is not the
answer. There is no doubt that they are concerned about the maritime
disputes in the South China Sea. They want a solution that is acceptable
to all claimants and complies with international law, but that should
not come at the expense of ASEAN’s other priorities.
Rather
than accusing one another of not standing up to China, ASEAN members
should take bold steps to address the underlying causes that make most
of them too dependent on major powers, not just China but also the United States.
Of course, this is by no means suggesting that they must stay away from
the two most powerful countries in the Asia Pacific, far from it. The
question is how they can create a genuine balance between them that
would ensure regional stability and peace.
In fact, the biggest challenge to ASEAN’s unity and centrality is not China but the unevenness of economic development
within the group. Despite strong economic growth, the region is still
facing many challenges that continue to hinder their ability to narrow
the development gap. The single most critical problem is probably
inadequate provision of good infrastructure, which poor member countries
desperately need to attract foreign direct investment and boost
economic growth.
In
September 2011, ASEAN member countries and the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) signed an agreement to establish the first largest ASEAN
Infrastructure Fund (AIF) with a total equity commitment of US$485.3
million. The AIF is initially expected to provide loans of up to US$300
million every year for infrastructure projects. Yet, according to the
ADB, ASEAN will need around US$60 billion each year to fully address the
region’s infrastructure needs.
This
huge funding gap forces ASEAN member countries to seek external sources
of capital financing. Since China has the ability to provide the
resources they need, they will accept the offer over the objections of
their colleagues. It was not surprising that when President Xi Jinping
announced the establishment of a US$40 billion New Silk Road strategy and a US$50 billion AIIB, many nations in the region quickly threw their support behind these initiatives.
Isolation
from China and its recent initiatives is unrealistic and
counterproductive. What ASEAN member states should consider is how they
can use China’s funding to strengthen the regional economy and narrow
their development gap. Good infrastructure and connectivity will play an
important role in the success of ASEAN’s upcoming Economic Community,
due to be launched later this year.
Phoak Kung is Co-founder and President of the Cambodian Institute for Strategic Studies (CISS).