Egypt's Waning Influence
Stratfor /Geopolitical Diary
Monday, July 1, 2013,
Egyptian
Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr resigned Tuesday, becoming the most
high-profile minister to step down since protests against the rule of
President Mohammed Morsi began over the weekend. Amr's resignation came
after the Egyptian military issued an ultimatum Monday, demanding that
Morsi and the ruling Muslim Brotherhood start a dialogue with opposition
members within 48 hours, or risk the military stepping in to impose a
"political roadmap" on all parties. This move comes amid the latest in a
series of political crises in Egypt since the ouster of former
President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011.
The
political turmoil facing Egypt, its political class and its powerful
military has become almost a given, with all sides turning to public
displays of unrest and emotion as often as they do to the democratic
process. And as Egypt's political system evolves, it is becoming clear
that -- with the exception of a few critical issues, including Gaza, the
Suez Canal and the Egyptian military's ability to secure both --
Western and regional governments are viewing Egypt's affinity for unrest
with diminishing concern.
Egypt
was once the political and religious lynchpin of the Sunni Arab world.
Egyptian institutions such as the religious Al-Azhar University and the
Islamism championed by the Muslim Brotherhood continue to have
significant regional influence, but Egypt is far from being a contender
for the role of Arab hegemon. Larger regional issues, such as the Syrian
War and the Sunni push back that has placed a formerly ascendant Iran
on the defensive, take priority over Egypt's political morass in the
eyes of the United States and its Western allies, who have grown weary
of intervening in the Middle East.
Egypt's
geopolitical relevance will endure for quite some time, even if the
country ceases to be a confident leader of the Sunni Arab world. The
Suez Canal is and will remain a vital path for global shipping, and
Egypt's proximity to the Gaza Strip, as well as its long-standing
cease-fire with Israel, will influence Washington to maintain links with
the Egyptian military, if not the government in Cairo. The Egyptian
military is the primary guarantor of the security of both the Suez Canal
and Egypt's border with Gaza. As long as the military maintains its
position as the strongest pillar within the Egyptian state, the United
States is unlikely to interfere with Egyptian affairs.
The
Egyptian army shows no signs of faltering. Its stability is both a
blessing and a curse; free from the meddling of stronger foreign actors,
the military is becoming increasingly responsible -- and accountable --
for Egypt's continued domestic unrest. In the absence of Western
support or intervention, regional actors such as Qatar, and to a lesser
extent Saudi Arabia and Libya, are helping to relieve some of the
economic pressures facing the Egyptian state. No one, however, is
offering an easy fix for Egypt's millennia-old economic and geographic
challenges.
No
one wants to see Egypt collapse, but no Western or regional actors are
willing to step in and shoulder the burden of rebuilding the Egyptian
state, either. And the ongoing stability and pervasiveness of the
Egyptian military helps assuage foreign concerns that such a collapse
might occur. The result is a domestic quagmire of competing political
and sectarian interests, and an increasingly beleaguered Egyptian army
forced to act as a referee among fractious competitors. Unable and
unwilling to step in and establish military rule directly, the
military's reliance upon and subsequent empowerment of various political
and public forces mean that the current cycle of Egyptian politics --
elections, opposition, protest and unrest -- will not likely change in
the near future.
Underlying
this dynamic is a serious imbalance in the country's economy, with a
growing population that far outweighs the desert country's resources. As
Egypt's focus turns inward and its regional position falters, its
economy will continue to decline even as its population keeps growing.
In short, its larger problems will cease to be addressed even as its
political situation continues to grab headlines.