STRATFOR
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
NATO´S EVOLUTION
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Analysis
NATO has more than doubled in size over its lifetime,
expanding from a core group of 12 countries to its current 28 members.
There have been six main phases of expansion, three occurring during the
Cold War and three after. Turkey and Greece were the first new members,
brought into the alliance in 1952 to cement the prevailing NATO
strategy of containment. West Germany's integration in 1955 contributed
to the formation of the Warsaw Pact, a Soviet-led counterbalance to NATO
that incorporated eight communist states across Central and Eastern
Europe. Spain's 1982 induction into the alliance helped further
consolidate Western Europe. The final three stages of NATO's expansion
occurred in 1999, 2004 and 2009, bringing former communist countries into play
and adding considerable depth to NATO's northern sector.
This growth
enabled the organization to develop a much more flexible and responsive
strategy than the previous forward defense concept allowed. The move
toward a more versatile NATO structure, cutbacks in defense spending and
the perception of Russia as less dangerous factored heavily into the
development of a rotational deployment framework for NATO members. The
massive, permanent concentrations of force that typified the Cold War
slowly began to dissolve.
The expansion of NATO was not
without its consequences. Because the alliance requires unanimous
consent to approve any action, increased membership also raises the risk
of divergent interests, heightening the possibility of a NATO
constituent vetoing a proposal. By getting so close to Russia's borders,
NATO succeeded in agitating Moscow, which views the proximity of the
alliance as a genuine threat. As a result, Russia has worked
continuously to undermine any Western neighbor.
A resurgent Russia
is enough to make Eastern Europe nervous -- even the NATO members. If
anything, their perception of the threat is greater because they are
closest to Russia and have the least overall protection. Potential
threats are varied and numerous, from airspace incursions by Russian
aircraft, to the deployment of theater ballistic missiles
in nearby locales, to cultural subversion and economic coercion.
Western Europe, in comparison, enjoys strategic depth and greater
economic security while at the same time possessing the bulk of the
remaining NATO infrastructure and combat power.
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