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Russia Solidifies its Military Position in Ukraine
December 2, 2014 | 1000 GMT
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Summary
Over
the past month, according to observers, Russia has sent more troops and
equipment into separatist-held eastern Ukraine. The flow initially
decreased after a cease-fire took effect Sept. 5, but now appears to have risen again. Even though the cease-fire has not been completely implemented and skirmishes continue to break out
along the front line, the shape and posture of these Russian
reinforcements does not necessarily indicate a further escalation of the
conflict between Ukrainian forces and separatists. Instead, Russia
seems to be consolidating the gains made prior to the cease-fire
declaration, securing the separatists' hold on the territory they
currently control. There are no indications of an expanded campaign
further into Ukraine.
Analysis
Reports show a significant increase in the number of Russian convoys sent into eastern Ukraine's Donbas region
between late October and early November. These convoys included armor,
mechanized forces, artillery and air defense systems as well as
ammunition and supplies. From early November, the convoys have
continued, although at a much lower rate.
On the Russian side of the border, forces and supplies continue to travel into the Rostov region — which borders Ukraine — by road, railway and air. Based on local reports and statements by Ukrainian security services, the latest troop movements are a relief in place for existing Russian units, part of a normal rotation of forces. Moscow's attempts to hide direct involvement in eastern Ukraine have also been scaled back. Prior to the Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement, the separatists claimed to have acquired their sophisticated military equipment by capturing it from Ukrainian forces. Now, however, Russia is deploying weapons systems to the Donbas region that have never been part of the Ukrainian military's inventory, showing less and less concern for plausible deniability.
A large portion of the deployments into the Donbas region consist of artillery units. These multiple rocket launchers and howitzers have already been used in the ongoing reciprocal artillery fire between separatist or Russian forces and the Ukrainian military all along the front line. The logistical effort to deploy and resupply these units likely accounts for a significant portion of the continuing convoys of Russian military trucks reported in the area. These artillery units, as well as several armored and infantry formations, have reportedly been deployed mostly around the main cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as further south on the coast of Novoazovsk, not far from where Ukrainian forces continue to man positions around Mariupol.
On the Russian side of the border, forces and supplies continue to travel into the Rostov region — which borders Ukraine — by road, railway and air. Based on local reports and statements by Ukrainian security services, the latest troop movements are a relief in place for existing Russian units, part of a normal rotation of forces. Moscow's attempts to hide direct involvement in eastern Ukraine have also been scaled back. Prior to the Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement, the separatists claimed to have acquired their sophisticated military equipment by capturing it from Ukrainian forces. Now, however, Russia is deploying weapons systems to the Donbas region that have never been part of the Ukrainian military's inventory, showing less and less concern for plausible deniability.
A large portion of the deployments into the Donbas region consist of artillery units. These multiple rocket launchers and howitzers have already been used in the ongoing reciprocal artillery fire between separatist or Russian forces and the Ukrainian military all along the front line. The logistical effort to deploy and resupply these units likely accounts for a significant portion of the continuing convoys of Russian military trucks reported in the area. These artillery units, as well as several armored and infantry formations, have reportedly been deployed mostly around the main cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as further south on the coast of Novoazovsk, not far from where Ukrainian forces continue to man positions around Mariupol.
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Russia
has also deployed a significant number of air defense systems to
eastern Ukraine, based on reports from local sources and the Ukrainian
security services. Medium-ranged Buk M1-M2 air defense systems covering
most of the separatist-held areas as well as shorter ranged systems such
as the Pantsir S-1, Osa and Tor clustered around the strategic supply
lines running from the Russian border into the main cities of Luhansk
and Donetsk combine to create a layered air defense infrastructure that
prevents the Ukrainian air force from using its assets over
separatist-held areas. Even though the Sept. 5 cease-fire agreement
explicitly rules out Ukrainian air operations over separatist held
areas, and the Ukrainian military has not attempted any such operations
since then, the Russian move to establish this air defense presence
indicates strong commitment to defending the separatist-held territory.
The
deployment of these air defense systems, as well as the artillery
units' capability to prevent the Ukrainian military from massing forces
for an attack on the separatist-held areas, seems to serve a mostly
defensive objective. However, separatist units continue to fight to
expand their territorial hold over smaller areas along certain positions
on the frontline. They have continued to encircle and then take over
Ukrainian checkpoints in areas near Luhansk, while bitter fighting
between both sides continues at the Donetsk airport. The Ukrainian
military's positions at Debaltseve, a strategic town that controls the
main highway directly connecting Donetsk and Luhansk, have also been
contested. As the separatist and Russian forces seek to consolidate
their positions there, they may still make significant attempts to seize
this location.
Despite this, both sides of the conflict lack significant incentives to return to large-scale combat. Ukraine continues to lack the military power to confront the separatist forces, especially with the Russian military backing them. At the same time, Russia does not want to become more overtly involved in operations that would draw it deeper into Ukraine and make it subject to greater responses from the West, particularly measures such as new sanctions and a NATO buildup. This means Russia will continue to back the separatist forces to maintain the threat of military action as a lever over Kiev.
Despite this, both sides of the conflict lack significant incentives to return to large-scale combat. Ukraine continues to lack the military power to confront the separatist forces, especially with the Russian military backing them. At the same time, Russia does not want to become more overtly involved in operations that would draw it deeper into Ukraine and make it subject to greater responses from the West, particularly measures such as new sanctions and a NATO buildup. This means Russia will continue to back the separatist forces to maintain the threat of military action as a lever over Kiev.